A US think tank flags a shift within Iran’s leadership, with hardliners gaining influence just as diplomatic engagement with Washington gathers pace through mediated talks in Islamabad.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arrives in Islamabad with a high-level delegation ahead of ceasefire talks with the United States on April 11, 2026. (Photo: Xinhua via IANS)
A fresh assessment by a US-based think tank suggests that hardline voices within Iran’s power structure may now be steering the country’s negotiating stance, with Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi emerging as a dominant figure.
The findings come at a critical moment, just as Tehran and Washington prepare for indirect engagement through mediators, raising questions over whether diplomatic flexibility is shrinking within Iran’s leadership.
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According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Vahidi and his close aides have consistently pushed back against efforts by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and other “pragmatist” figures who were advocating a more adaptable position in negotiations. The report indicates that this internal contest has, for now, been settled in favour of the hardliners.
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The ISW assessment notes that Vahidi appears to have “prevailed in this internal power struggle” and is likely to influence Iran’s approach with a “maximalist and uncompromising stance.” It adds that Ghalibaf “likely lacks the leverage to alter this trajectory in a meaningful way at this time.”
Reports about Ghalibaf’s possible exit from the negotiating team have added to the sense of friction at the top. The ISW said such developments are “consistent with ISW-CTP’s assessment that Vahidi has emerged as the winner of the intra-regime rivalry.”
Citing Western media reports, the think tank noted that Ghalibaf has “grown frustrated with internal divisions” and has considered stepping aside. Some accounts have even suggested that he may have “already resigned from the negotiating team due to disagreements over nuclear concessions.”
Even as voices within the system continue to argue for a more flexible line, the ISW believes their influence is limited for now. It said such efforts are “unlikely to meaningfully shape regime decision-making in the near term.”
The report underlines that Vahidi’s ascendancy could have a direct bearing on future engagement with Washington. It describes him as more willing than pragmatist leaders to accept the risks of renewed confrontation with the United States, a position that may complicate ongoing diplomatic efforts.
This internal churn is unfolding alongside preparations for talks in Islamabad, where both sides are expected to engage through intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reached Pakistan on April 24, while US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to arrive a day later.
Sources cited by Axios indicated that a “trilateral meeting” involving Araghchi, Witkoff and Kushner may take place after separate bilateral discussions.
Despite the indications of discord, Iran’s leadership has projected a united front. On Friday, official messaging featured a joint image of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, asserting national cohesion in the face of external claims.
Ghalibaf himself echoed that line, stating, “In Iran, there are no radicals or moderates; we are all ‘Iranian’ and ‘revolutionary,’ and with the iron unity of the nation and government, with complete obedience to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, we will make the aggressor criminal regret his actions.”
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